In the first quarter, the overall performance of China's textile and garment export was stable, with a year-on-year growth of 43.7%, and the export volume exceeded the same period in 2019, with an average growth of 8.7% in two years. However, the current external environment is becoming more severe and complex, and major events have occurred frequently in just three months since the beginning of the year. The epidemic has not ended, the market demand has not stabilized, the unrest in Myanmar has damaged China's investment enterprises in Myanmar, the continuous fermentation of Xinjiang cotton problem, the appreciation of RMB and the sharp rise of raw material prices have all had a serious adverse impact on China's exports. In the absence of a stable market environment and trading environment, coupled with the rise of the year-on-year base, the export performance in the second quarter will be weaker than that in the first quarter, the growth will slow down and tend to fall year-on-year.
At present, the epidemic situation has been effectively contained in China, and the vaccination work in China has been carried out in an orderly manner. More than 200 million shots have been vaccinated in China, and the United States and other developed countries are also promoting vaccination. However, the vaccination situation in some developing countries, including India and other countries, is poor, so the global recovery still needs time. It is expected that it will take 1-2 years for the world to return to normal.
The epidemic amplified the adverse factors in international politics and economy, triggered potential contradictions at all levels, made the black swan incident appear continuously, and had a certain adverse impact on China's textile and garment industry. However, the epidemic has also tested and shuffled various industries around the world, which fully proves the toughness and stability of China's textile and garment industry, and further strengthens the development confidence of the industry and enterprises. At present, the epidemic situation has occurred repeatedly in some countries, hindering the just emerging reverse flow of orders. Orders in key markets such as Europe, the United States and Japan will again delay the transfer speed and turn more to China.
Chinese enterprises should seize the opportunity to consolidate and then expand their market share in developed countries and slow down the speed of industrial transfer. At the same time, we should pay more attention to the epidemic trend and vaccination situation in Europe and the United States, grasp the trend and change trend of the big market, timely adjust production and trade strategies, and prepare for the post epidemic era and take the lead.
Exports grew rapidly in the first quarter
In the first quarter, China's textile and garment trade amounted to US $73.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40%. Among them, the export was 66.52 billion US dollars, an increase of 43.7%; Imports reached US $6.86 billion, an increase of 12.1%, and the cumulative trade surplus reached US $59.67 billion, an increase of 48.5%. In March, the trade volume of textiles and clothing was US $22.08 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.1%. Among them, the export was 19.35 billion US dollars, an increase of 22.7%; Imports amounted to US $2.73 billion, an increase of 18.5%, and the trade surplus of the month was US $16.62 billion, an increase of 23.4%.
The first quarter of last year was the outbreak period of the epidemic in China, and the export once fell into a trough. Under the influence of low base and other factors, exports rebounded in an all-round way in the first quarter of this year, realizing high-speed growth, with an increase of more than 40%. Due to the special situation of last year, it is necessary to compare this year's data from multiple periods and angles.
Compared with the same period in 2019, the export volume of textiles and clothing in the first quarter of this year increased by 18.1%, including 19.4% for textiles and 17% for clothing; In terms of the average growth rate in the two years, the export volume of textiles and clothing increased by 8.7%, including 9.2% for textiles and 8.2% for clothing; On a month on month basis, textile and clothing decreased by 3.3% compared with February, of which textile increased by 7.1% and clothing decreased by 12.1%. Textiles continued to grow, and clothing began to fall.
EU market demand rebounded most significantly
During the global epidemic lasted more than a year, China's textile and garment export market structure has changed. The market share of some developed countries has increased, such as the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain, Australia, Canada, etc. In addition, the upward trend of India is obvious. In the first quarter, exports to India increased by 65%, and India's share in China's export market increased from 1.7% in 2019 to 2%. At the same time, the proportion of some original major export markets decreased significantly, such as Russia and Hong Kong, China, especially Hong Kong, China. In the first quarter, the export to Hong Kong, China decreased by 11.4%, which is the only market in the top 30.
At present, the United States is China's largest export market, and its export volume to the United States has exceeded that of 27 EU countries. In the first quarter, China's textile and garment exports to the United States amounted to US $11.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 81.7%, an increase of 28.2% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the key commodity needle woven clothing increased by 48.1%, decreased by 5% compared with 2019, and has not yet returned to the pre epidemic level.
In the first quarter, China's textile and garment exports to the EU amounted to US $10.15 billion, a year-on-year increase of 51% and 29.9% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the key commodity needle woven clothing increased by 39.2%, an increase of 16.6% over 2019.
In the first quarter, China's textile and garment exports to Japan amounted to US $5.19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.6%, an increase of 8.5% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the key commodity needle woven clothing increased by 14.9%, down 6.2% from 2019.
In the first quarter, China's textile and garment exports to ASEAN reached US $10.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.7% and 20.6% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the key commodity yarn and fabric increased by 22.7%, an increase of 0.6% over 2019.
Due to the recurrence of the epidemic, although the share of Chinese products in key markets fell from the high point last year, it did not continue to decline. At present, it remains stable or fluctuates slightly. From January to February, the United States imported US $20.02 billion from the world, an increase of 7.9%, an increase of 35% from China, and China accounted for 32.2%, of which textiles accounted for 38.4% and clothing accounted for 29.8%, both higher than the same period in 2020, but lower than the same period in 2019. From January to February, Japan's imports from China accounted for 56.2%, of which textiles and clothing accounted for 59.2% and 55.2% respectively, both exceeding the level in the same period last year and 2019.
The growth rate of garment exports exceeded that of textiles
In the first quarter, with the slow recovery of consumer demand in major markets, clothing exports began to accelerate, with an increase of more than textiles. Clothing and textiles increased by 47.5% and 40% year-on-year respectively.
As the key epidemic prevention materials, masks and protective clothing, were still in the stage of rapid growth in the first quarter (an increase of 145% and 225.6% respectively), the actual situation of textile and clothing exports could be seen only after the epidemic prevention materials were stripped. After removing masks, textile exports increased by 31.5% year-on-year and 8.6% over the same period in 2019; After removing protective clothing, clothing exports increased by 44.5% year-on-year and 14.3% over the same period in 2019. In terms of product categories, the export of needle woven clothing in clothing increased by 36.7% year-on-year, 7.4% over the same period in 2019, and the yarn and fabric in textiles increased by 15.8% and 23.5% respectively year-on-year. Compared with 2019, the fabric increased slightly by 0.7% and the yarn decreased by 0.8%.
In March last year, China began to export epidemic prevention materials on a large scale and maintained a year of rapid growth. In March this year, the export volume of epidemic prevention materials was still at a high level, but the growth rate gradually fell. In that month, the export of masks and protective clothing increased by 5.8% and 96% respectively, significantly lower than the growth level in the early stage. From the second quarter, the export of epidemic prevention materials will have a year-on-year negative growth.
The export performance of central and western provinces is outstanding
In the first quarter, all 31 provinces and cities (districts) except Tibet achieved rapid growth, and the performance of the central and western regions was still bright. The eastern, central and western regions and Northeast China increased by 41.5%, 79.1%, 52.3% and 7.9% respectively. From the single month situation, the export growth rate in March was significantly lower than that in the previous two months. Among the top five provinces and cities, the growth rate of Zhejiang and Jiangsu shrank to single digits, and Guangdong, Shandong and Fujian also fell to varying degrees.
The growth trend of clothing import is obvious
In sharp contrast to exports, textile and garment imports still showed a month on month upward trend in March. In the month, the import of textile and garment increased by 18.5% year-on-year and 58.7% month on month. The growth was mainly driven by clothing. Under the epidemic, the purchase of high-end consumer goods such as imported clothing became the first choice for people who could not go abroad for shopping. The clothing import increased by 56.8% in the current month (the import growth of cosmetics, shoes and bags of light industry in the same period also exceeded 50%), and the clothing import increased by 52.7% in the first quarter. The import of fabrics and finished products in textiles decreased. Yarn, mainly cotton yarn, maintained growth. In the first quarter, the cumulative import volume and value of cotton yarn increased by 21.5% and 21.2% respectively, and the average import price increased by 7.6%.
Cotton imports continued to grow at a high level
In the first quarter, cotton imports grew rapidly, with a cumulative import of 971000 tons from the world, an increase of 58.2% over the first quarter of last year. Among them, the United States is the largest import source country, with a cumulative import of 430000 tons from the United States, an increase of 2.5 times, and the proportion of American cotton is as high as 44.3%. Brazil and India followed the United States. Burkina Faso ranks fourth and has become a new major source of China's cotton imports.
In March, driven by the decline in commodity prices, cotton prices at home and abroad showed a correction trend. The operating rate of textile enterprises remained at a high level, and the market purchase and sales were smooth. Enterprises took advantage of the decline in cotton prices to replenish stocks, the raw material inventory increased slightly, the commercial inventory continued to decline, the transportation volume of cotton in Xinjiang increased, and the inventory in Xinjiang decreased significantly. On March 31, the central reserve cotton wheel entry was completed. Due to the unqualified price difference between internal and external cotton, the reserve cotton wheel entry has not been started. According to the survey results of China Cotton Association, the intended area of cotton planting in China was 43.6755 million mu, a year-on-year decrease of 4.99%, an increase of 4.4 percentage points over the previous period.
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